Over the past week economic statistics from the Indian markets, the M3 money supply for the period ended on 22nd March ’24 has increased by 11.4% compared to the same period last year. Both lending and borrowing for banks have seen significant growth, with a 19.9% increase for lending and a 13.8% increase for borrowing. While no major economic data has expected from the Indian economy next week, the ongoing general election and quarter #4 earnings announcements are expected to contribute to slightly increased market volatility.
Looking ahead to the week in the US, attention is focused on the GDP growth of the US economy for the first quarter of CY24. Additionally, on Friday (26th), PCE data is anticipated, with expectations of a 0.3% month-on-month growth for both Core PCE and PCE. Also on Friday, US personal income data will be released, measuring the total income received by individuals through wages, salaries, and social security. The market anticipates a month-on-month growth of 0.4%, lower than the 0.8% growth observed in February.
The Federal Reserve has moved its stance from previously anticipated 4-5(Previous Nov-Dec FOMC) rate cuts in CY24 to 2-3 rate cuts for the year. Some analysts are even suggesting that there won’t be no rate cuts this year, primarily due to fluctuating inflation numbers amidst a robustly strengthening economy, placing pressure on the Fed to maintain unchanged rates.
Date : 22nd Apr '24; Source - Trading Economics, Mint, Forex factory
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