Over the past week, the United States economy has shown promising signs of optimism. Both inflation and core inflation for May remained notably low, registering at 0% and 0.2% respectively. These figures fell short of analysts' projections, which was anticipated a 0.1% increase in inflation and a 0.3% rise in core inflation. Additionally, the Producer Price Index (PPI) released on Thursday showed a decline of 0.2% for May, contrary to expectations of a 0.2% increase. The Federal Reserve has opted to keep interest rates unchanged, while signaling a potential rate cut later this year. Despite the encouraging inflation data, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) projections reflected a cautious stance. The Fed revised its long-term rate projections upwards from 2.6% to 2.8%, and forecasted rates for December 2025 and December 2026 at 4.1% and 3.1% respectively. Looking ahead, we have the retail sales growth figures are anticipated on June 18th. Turning to the Indian economy, the inflation data has also been positive. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Wholesale Price Index (WPI) for May came in at 4.75% and 2.61% respectively, both lower than market expectations of 4.8% for CPI and 3% for WPI. Furthermore, India's finance ministry is scheduled to present the budget for the remainder of the year on July 22nd. Date : 16th June '24; Source - Trading Economics LR

United States: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS): The latest JOLTS data, released on Tuesday, indicates that the US economy currently has 8.06 million job openings. This continues the downward trend and also falls short of expectations by 340k. It also had declined from the 296k of April's. On Friday, the NFP data revealed the addition of 272,000 new jobs in the economy, significantly surpassing analyst estimates of 151,000. This is an improvement from the revised April’s 165k (Revised from 175k). The unemployment rate increased to 4% in May, reaching a 27-month high since February 2022. Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI): • Manufacturing PMI: The manufacturing PMI declined slightly, registering at 48.7, below the expected 50 points. • Services PMI: The services PMI outperformed expectations, coming in at 53.8 compared to the estimated 51. The labor data reveals a mixed picture while the decline in JOLTS openings and the rise in NFP suggest a strengthening labor market, the increase in the unemployment rate to a 27-month high raises concerns about these divergent trends is interesting to watch in one of the strongest economies. This week Outlook:  Looking ahead, key economic indicators to be released this week include: • Inflation and Core Inflation Data: Scheduled for Wednesday. • Federal Reserve Rate Decision and FOMC Economic Projections: The Fed is anticipated to maintain the interest rate at 5.5% and provide insights on future policy directions. • Producer Price Inflation (PPI): Expected on Friday, with analysts forecasting a 0.2% increase. On the same day, the Fed will hold a conference with media and analysts. India: Political Developments and Market Reaction: The ruling party in India secured its third consecutive term last week. However, market optimism spurred by exit polls on Monday was dampened by the actual election results. The substantial discrepancy between the exit polls and actual number of seats won by the ruling party led to a market crack of 5-6% on Tuesday. This downturn was short-lived, as the market recovered the entire fall over the next three trading sessions. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has kept interest rates steady at 6.5%. Outlook: There are no significant economic events scheduled in India for the upcoming week. Date : 09th June '24; Source - Trading Economics LR

Over the last week in US, the economy’s GDP for Q1 2024 expanded by only 1.3% annualized rate, much lower than the forecasted 1.6% and also it is the lowest since two consecutive negative growth quarters in 2022. The Core PCE for April increased by 0.2%, in line with estimates, while personal income and consumption data came out at 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively. Personal income growth cooled from 0.5% in March and meets the analyst estimate. The personal spending in April has also slowed from 0.7% (revised from 0.8%), falling short of the expected 0.4%. These consumption-driven indicators and GDP shows the pressure on the economy due to the high interest rates and showing signs for rate cuts. But the durable goods and inflation data suggest maintaining higher rates is justified. This week, the Manufacturing PMI is released on June 3 (Monday) and the Services PMI on June 5. These indicators reflect the health and performance of their respective sectors. Analysts expect the Manufacturing PMI to be at 50 and the Services PMI at 51 points. Additionally, labor market figures will be released, with JOLTS openings on June 4 and other indicators like NFP and the unemployment rate on June 7 (Friday). The NFP is expected to show 151K new jobs, with the unemployment rate steady at 3.9%. Turning to the Indian economy, last week showed a robust 7.8% GDP growth, exceeding analyst expectations of 6.7%. Looking ahead, general election results are due on June 4 (Tuesday). Exit polls suggest the ruling party will likely continue, which is expected to positively impact the market. However, an unexpected outcome could significantly shift market sentiment. Following this, the RBI’s interest rate decision is on June 7 (Friday), with rates expected to remain steady at 6.5%. Date : 02nd June '24; Source - Trading Economics LR